Monday, June 6, 2016

Tali Open 2016: Eveliina vs. Catrina

English summary below the main text

Tänä vuonna huomio Tali Openin suhteen kiinnittyi monien osalta erityisesti naisten avointen puolelle, jossa voiton vei yksi Suomen nuorista kärkinimistä, Eveliina Salonen ja toiseksi tuli kokeneempi, maailman toiseksi rankattu, Catrina Allen. Eveliina itse arvosti voittoaan korkealle verrattuna muihin saavutuksiinsa, sillä turnaukseen oli saapunut kilpailijoita myös ulkomailta. Taistelu olisi voinut saada jatkoa seuraavan viikonlopun European Openissa, mutta Disc Golf World Tourin sukupuolineutraalin linjan vuoksi naisilla ei ollut omaa  sarjaa, kuten viime vuonna, ja mukana oli vain yksi nainen, Catrina Allen. Tässä kirjoituksessa vertaillaan Eveliinan ja Catrinan suorituksia ja pohditaan mitkä seikat ratkaisivat voiton. Mukana myös Eveliinan kommentteja.




Kuva 1 Vasemmalla Eveliina Salonen, oikealla Catrina Allen (kuvat: Team Frisbeepoint ja Team Prodigy)



Kuva 2 Eveliinan ja Catrinan tulos suhteessa pariin. Käyrä näyttää tilanteen jokaisen väylän jälkeen kaikilta kolmelta kierrokselta.


Kuvasta 2 nähdään, että ensimmäisellä kierroksella Eveliinan ja Catrinan tulokset etenivät tasaisesti viimeisille väylille asti, kunnes Eveliinalla alkoi bogiputki väylältä 14. Seitsemällä viimeisellä väylällä eveliina otti 6 bogia eikä yhtään birdiä. Samalla Catrina otti 4 bogia ja yhden birdien. Eveliinan mukaan mokailu johtui siitä että draiveista hävisi tarkkuus ja putti kulki huonosti. Toiselle kierrokselle Catrina lähti maltillisessa neljän heiton johtoasemassa.

Eveliina pelasi toisen kierroksen huippuhyvin kiristäen kohti loppua ja päätyen -3 kierrostulokseen. Toisen kierroksen alkupuolisko oli Eveliinalle “sahausta” - vuoroin bogia ja vuoroin birdiä, mutta loppukierros meni ilman bogeja kolmen birdien kera. Eveliinan mukaan toinen kierros oli hänen paras kierroksensa pitkään aikaan; lähes kaikki tuntui sujuvan. Catrina otti toisella kierroksella 6 birdietä, mutta väylillä 7-10 antoi neljä heittoa periksi ihannetulokselle. Muuten kierros meni Catrinan osalta hyvin.

Viimeiselle kierrokselle lähdettiin tasatilanteesta 6 yli ihannetuloksen. Eveliinan kolmas kierros alkoi huonosti - kymmenen väylän jälkeen viisi heittoa periksi ihannetulokselle. Talin alkukolmannes on helpompi kuin loppurata, joten voi kuvitella että Eveliinaa on tuossa vaiheessa harmittanut. Eveliinan mukaan erityisesti draivit menivät koko ajan huonosti, mutta tulos pysyi jotenkin kasassa hyvien paikkailujen ansiosta. Catrina puolestaan pelasi tasaisesti, pelaten yhden heiton alle ihannetuloksen tultaessa väylälle 15. Parempaankin olisi ollut mahdollisuus sillä väylillä 2 ja 13 Catrina epäonnistui helpohkoissa lähestymisistä jotka johtivat puttimisseihin. Peli näytti pelatulta sillä ero Eveliinaan oli väylän 14 jälkeen viisi heittoa, 6 väylää jäljellä ja takaa-ajajat yli 15 heittoa perässä. Sitten alkoi tapahtua, sillä frisbeegolfissa peli ei ole koskaan pelattu ennen viimeistä puttia.

Väylällä 15 Catrina heittää suoraan väylän keskellä olevaan aitaan, josta hankala lähestyminen OB:lle ja tuplabogi korttiin. Väylillä 16 ja 17 Eveliina kuitenkin “antoi” nämä heitot takaisin ottamalla kaksi bogia ja viimeistään tässä vaiheessa peli alkoi näyttää kohtalaisen selvältä. Pelin ratkaisin Eveliinan puolelle lopulta väylä 20, saariväylä, jossa Catrina suli täydellisesti. Avaus tällä par nelosella oli loistava ja antoi mahdollisuuden yrittää toisella saareen. Catrina yritti, mutta heitto meni OB:ksi jolloin peli jatkuu “mantereen” puolelta. Tämän jälkeen muutama lähäri jälleen OB:lle ja korttiin tulos 10. Yhtäkkiä Eveliina onkin kahden heiton johtoasemassa ennen viimeistä helpohkoa saariväylää. Molemmat pelasivat viimeisen väylän pariin, Eveliina voitti Tali Openin 2016 ja kuittasi 359 € palkinnon.


Kuva 3 Talin kisarata. Kilpailun ratkaisu tapahtui väylällä 20.



Catrinan sulaminen väylällä 20 jäi varmasti kaikkien paikalla olleiden mieleen, mutta ei suinkaan ollut ainoa turnauksen ratkaisua selittävä tekijä. Kuvan 2 tarkempi tarkastelu paljastaa että molemmat pelasivat turnauksen hyvin ottaen suhteellisen paljon birdejä ja kohtalaisen vähän bogeja. Eveliina otti viikon aikana 13 bogia, joka on yksi enemmän kuin Catrinalla ja 4 tuplabogia, joka on myös yhden enemmän kuin Catrinalla. Näiden suhteen peli oli siis aika tasaista. Catrina otti kuitenkin 12 birdiä, joka on 5 enemmän kuin Eveliinalla. Yleisesti peli oli siis aika tasaista kallistuen hieman Catrinan puolelle ennen lopun mokaa. Eveliina pelasi hieman tasaisemmin ja varmemmin ja Catrinan tulos sahasi enemmän peräkkäisten birdien ja bogien seurauksena.

Yksittäisistä väylistä, jotka näkyvät kuvassa 3, suurimmat erot kolmen kierroksen aikana Catrinan eduksi syntyivät väylillä 3 (ylimääräinen kisaväylä), 10 (tiukka puuväylä, oikealla OB) ja 16 (alamäki OB-saariväylä). Eveliinan osalta ainoastaan väylä 19 (putteriliidätys alamäkeen) meni selkeästi paremmin kuin Catrinalla, lukuunottamatta tietenkin väylää 20 jossa Catrina mokasi. Muuten pelaajien suoriutuminen eri väylillä oli kohtalaisen satunnaista. Eveliinan mukaan Catrinan peli on edelleen häntä edellä melkein joka osa-aleella, joten harjoiteltavaa riittää. Eniten Eveliina haluaisi petrata tarkkuuden osalta sillä kapeilla väylillä draivit kopisevat herkästi puihin. Draivin pituus ja toimiva kämmenheitto ovat Eveliinan vahvuuksia.

Seuraava iso kisa Tali Openin jälkeen on tietysti European Open, mutta siellä ei ikävä kyllä nähdä naisten kaksinkamppailuja. Disc Golf World Tour on ottanut kisoihinsa kyseenalaisen “sukupuoli- ja ikäneutraalin linjan”, eli linja on kaikille sama eikä luokkia ole kuin yksi. Tietääkseni European Openissa on mukana vain yksi nainen, Catrina Allen.



English summary

Eveliina Salonen took first place in this years Tali Open over Catrina Allen. With some comments from Eveliina, this article goes over what aspects setled the score for her.  Unfortunately the battle between Catrina and Eveliina did not continue in European Open 2016, because women's class is excluded from Disc Golf World Tour.  

As we see from Figure 2, the beginning of the first round was pretty even until Eveliina started to take bogies after Hole 14. Eveliina took six bogies and not a single birdie in the final holes while Catrina took four bogies and a birdie. According to Eveliina both her drives and putting were inaccurate. Catrina led with four strokes before second round.

Eveliina's second round went superbly, finishing three under par. Eveliina started by taking consequent birdies and bogies, but the latter part of the round went without bogies. According to Eveliina this was her best round in a while. Catrina played an ok round and she lost all of her advantage.

The third round did not go as planned for Eveliina. Her drives were inaccurate, but she managed to save some strokes with her approach game. The result was that after Hole 14 Eveliina was five strokes behind Catrina. What happened after 14 proves that the game ends only when the last putt has been put in the basket.

Catrina's drive on hole 15 hits a fence halfway along the fairway. The following approach from a difficult stance sails to OB. Catrina cards a double bogie. In holes 16 and 17 Eveliina "gives" these strokes back by taking two bogies and the game starts to look settled. Catrina's drive on the second to last hole lands perfectly far up the fairway giving her a decent look at the island green. First shot OB, and according to local rules, the game continues from the "mainland". A couple more Catrinas throws go to OB and she cards a 10. Suddenly Eveliina leads by two strokes before the relatively easy final hole.Eveliina won and took home the prize.

Eventhough Catrina's mistakes on Hole 20 is what most will remember, Figure 2 shows also other interesting things. Both players were pretty even. Eveliina took 13 bogies opposed to Catrina's 12, four double bogies opposed to Catrina's three and 7 birdies opposed to Catrina's 12. Eveliina's game was a bit more even whereas Catrinas score went up and down after consequent birdies and bogies. Catrina played Holes 3 and 10, which demand accuracy, better than Eveliina and Eveliina was better on 19, which demands a floaty downhill puttershot. According to Eveliina however, Catrina is still better in almost every aspect. Eveliina would like to improve especially her accuracy.

European Open was held a week after Tali. Unfortunately we did not see a remach of women's competition, because Disc Golf World Tour has decided to have only one class which is age and gender neutral. This decision is, I think, poorly judged and does not help in inroducing the sport for women.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

2015 HAIX Tali Open course statistics

During the past few months I've been busy with work and actually playing disc golf rather than writing about it. But when the organizers of 2016 Tali Open asked me to make an analysis of the last years competition I was glad to crunch some numbers. You can find the story here.

I also have some ideas for future stories and I will do a new blog post about them sooner or later. Meanwhile you  can like my Facebook page from the sidebar (to get notifications about new posts), read the previous post about European Open and Scandinavian Open 2015 and fill in the Grip Survey that I will write about in the future.

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Grip survey

There are plenty of different driving grips in disc golf - power grip, fan grip, modified fan grip, etc. A couple of weeks ago I heard of a new one, which is the power grip with a straight middle finger. This made me think - wouldn't it be interesting to know a bit more of the distribution of grips out there. And could there be a correlation for example between grips and the potential distance you can achieve?

Therefore I decided to make a short survey about backhand and forehand grips. The survey only takes about 3 minutes of your time. You can fill-in the survey here: driving grip survey

As time goes by and more results come in I can perhaps make some conclusions, but meanwhile a generic report can be found here: results


Tuesday, December 22, 2015

Major statistics: EO 2015 recap and Scandinavian open 2015

A few days ago I started a blog in Finnish called Fribaa numeroina (Disc golf in numbers). The post was a statistical analysis based on hole-to-hole results from European Open 2015. A moment later it had 500 views and 50 likes and people were asking for more statistics from other competitions. Some were also asking a post in English. This blog entry will be a recap of EO2015 + similar statistics from Scandinavian Open 2015. If you have already read the first blog post, you can skip the first part.


Recap of the first blog post



Figure 1 Birdie-or-better percentage of players making the cut, and their final place in the EO 2015


According to Figure 1, players needed at least 45% of birdies in order to place on top. Paul McBeth won with a relatively low 46 %, Wysocki had a very high 54 % placing second  and third was Jeremy Koling with a respectable 49 % of birdies.  The players who are marked with red are far above the line, which means that they have relatively high numbers of birdies in relation to their placement. These players placements suffered from many bogies, and they can be seen as "risky players". Wysocki, who was second, had a huge birdie percentage but made a lot of bogies costing him first place. Devan Owens had also a lot of potential and is the second red dot in graph. Other risky players were Janne Hirsimäki, Leo Piironen, Miko Fyhr, Jukka Pyhältö and Pasi Koivu, who placed 50th despite of 31 % birdies. Gregory Barsby had even more disappointing tournament with a 35 % of birdies and finishing 52nd place! Marked in green are the opposite of these players. Avery Jenkins, Bobby Musick, Dick Lampinen, Philo Brathwaite, Jukka Leinonen, Antti Koivula, Steven Rico and Joonas Kuitunen did not have too many birdies but managed to place relatively high anyway.




Figure 2 Bogey or worse % of EO2015


Another way to analyse risky vs. safe players is to look at bogey-or-worse percentages. In Figure 2 and in first place is Paul McBeth, with the least amount of bogies (6%), but in relation to placement Steven Rico was the most extreme (37th, 11% of bogies). Marked in green are other "safe" players: Philo Brathwaite, Jukka Leinonen, Jasper Heino and Ville Piippo who also took low numbers of bogies in relation to their final placement. Above the red line are players who took a lot of bogies in relation to their placing. These "risky" players are David Feldberg, Devan Owens, Lassi Hakulinen, Arttu Sikanen, Teemu Malmelin, Janne Hirsimäki, Jani Ikonen and in the top most corner Gregory Barsby and Mikael Hyväri.


Figure 3 Players rating and their total score, EO2015


In my previous blog post I came to the conclusion that the PDGA rating system might be geographically unfair. Figure 3 shows that most of the red dots (players from the US) are above the line and most blue dots (players from Finland) are below it. It looks like Finns performed better in relation to their rating and many 1000+ rated Americans had a bad score. There are two explanations for this. The rating system may have a geographical error: it is easier to get good ratings in the US than in Finland. One reason for this might be that Finnish disc golfers as a group have developed faster than their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic, and ratings cannot react to this kind of a systematic change. Second explanation is that Finns had a home advantage in EO 2015 and the Americans weren't that familiar with the course. We should of course look into more competitions to find more evidence for these claims.



Scandinavian Open 2015

This chapter will go through similar statistics of Scandinavian Open 2015. Players included are men who made the final round cut. Due to clarity issues I had to remove FPO from the analysis, but I will write about them in a later blog entry.

Figure 4 Player ratings and their total score in Scandinavian Open 2015

We can again see from Figure 4 that Finns performed better than their ratings would forecast. The pattern is similar as in Figure 3: red dots are mostly above the line and big portion of blue dots are below it. The difference however is not as striking as in EO 2015. It is also interesting that Swedes are evenly above and below the line. It might be that the difficulty of getting good ratings in Sweden is between Finland and the US. Another remark is that Paul McBeth placed right on the line and had a 11 throw difference to Will Schusterick, who was second. It seems that at least the rating system can find the strongest player.


Figure 5 Birdie or better (0,30 = 30 %) and total throws of Scandinavian Open 2015


Right of the bat from Figure 5 you can see that Scandinavian Open 2015 was more even than EO 2015 (with the exception of Paul McBeth who had 64 % birdies or eagles). The group is bunched together more tightly and birdie percentages drop less rapidly than in Figure 1. The bogey percentages (Figure 6) are also lower than in EO 2015: every player in top 10 had less than 10 % of bogies. Overall players made more birdies and less bogies in SO 2015 than EO 2015. The course of Scandinavian Open was probably more forgiving than the course of EO 2015.

According to Figure 5, birdie-happy players marked in red and in order of placement were Paul McBeth, Simon Lizotte, Ricky Wysochi (2nd), Karl Johan Nybo, Nils Iso-Markku, Jasper Heino, Don Smith, Anton Kappling, Albin Lindberg, Simon Feasey, David Swärd and Lassi Hakulinen. Other side of the line were players finishing relatively high regardless of their low birdie percentage. They were Nikko Locastro (3rd), Henrik Johansen, Steven Rico, Bobby Musick, Brody Miller, Leo Piiroinen, Jonathan Baldwin, Avery Jenkins, Mats Strömberg, Tim Mirabal, Lasse Keränen, Jerry Goff and Niko Kempas. Many of these players had a low birdie percent also in EO 2015.


Figure 6 Bogey or worse and total throws of Scandinavian Open 2015

An interesting finding from Figure 6 is that Paul McBeth had relatively many bogeys (4 %) and that Nikko Locastro had only 1 bogie in the whole tournament. Players taking relatively many bogies were Paul McBeth, Richard Wysocki, Paul Ulibarri, Don Smith, Janne Hirsimäki, Devan Owens, Ralph Hupper, Linus Åström, Drew Gibson, Ville Koutonen, David Swärd, Kaj Larsson and Henrik Vännström. Players with relatively few bogies were Nikko Locastro, Steven Rico, Bobby Musick, Brody Miller, Matias Söderström, Jonathan Baldwin, Avery Jenkins, Mats Strömberg, Tim Mirabal and Jerry Goff.

In conclusion, Avery Jenkins, Bobby Musick and Steven Rico are the only players who were labeled "safe" both in EO 2015 and SO 2015. Paul McBeth won both tournaments, played conservatively in EO 2015 but really broke the bank in SO 2015 by making 64 % of birdies. Wysocki took a lot of bogies in both tournaments, as did Janne Hirsimäki. Seppo Paju placed well in both tournaments. Many Finns had also high birdie percentages (Teemu Nissinen, Pasi Koivu, Nils Iso-markku, Jasper Heino and Arttu Sikanen). Maybe next year we will have a Finn on the podium of a Major tournament.


Let me know if you have any suggestions for future blog posts!
Statistics visible to everyone here: Scandinavian Open 2015, European Open 2015